Spatio - Temporal Modelling of Extreme Storms
نویسندگان
چکیده
A flexible spatio-temporal model is implemented to analyse extreme extra-tropical cyclones objectively identified over the Atlantic and Europe in 6-hourly re-analyses from 1979–2009. Spatial variation in the extremal properties of the cyclones is captured using a 150 cell spatial regularisation, latitude as a covariate, and spatial random effects. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is also used as a covariate and is found to have a significant effect on intensifying extremal storm behaviour, especially over Northern Europe and the Iberian peninsula. Estimates of lower bounds on minimum sea-level pressure are typically 10–50 hPa below the minimum values observed for historical storms with largest differences occurring when the NAO index is positive.
منابع مشابه
Spatio-temporal agent based simulation of COVID-19 disease and investigating the effect of vaccination (case study: Urmia)
Proper management of epidemic diseases such as Covid-19 is very important because of its effects on the economy, culture and society of nations. By applying various control strategies such as closing schools, restricting night traffic and mass vaccination program, the spread of this disease has been somewhat controlled but not completely stopped. The main goal of this research is to provide a f...
متن کاملA New Class of Spatial Covariance Functions Generated by Higher-order Kernels
Covariance functions and variograms play a fundamental role in exploratory analysis and statistical modelling of spatial and spatio-temporal datasets. In this paper, we construct a new class of spatial covariance functions using the Fourier transform of some higher-order kernels. Moreover, we extend this class of spatial covariance functions to the spatio-temporal setting using the idea used in...
متن کاملتحلیل مطالعات مخاطره گردوغبار در جنوب غرب ایران در دوره 22 ساله (2017-1996)
The analysis of dust hazard studies in southwest region of Iran in 22 years (1996-2017) Dust storms are natural hazards that mostly occur in arid and semi-arid regions and there are many harmful consequences. According to the topographic-climatic conditions in Iran and the significant increase in the number and severity of dust storms occurrence in recent decades, especially in the West and So...
متن کاملStochastic Simulation of Inhomogeneous Metocean Fields. Part II: Synoptic Variability and Rare Events
The paper discusses stochastic models for the synoptic variability of metocean fields using spatio-temporal impulse representations combined with Markov walks of storms in space. The models are fitted to an extensive data set of ocean wave fields from the Barents Sea and verified by studying the fields duration and extreme value properties.
متن کاملAssessment of Neonate's Congenital Hypothyroidism Pattern Using Poisson Spatio-temporal Model in Disease Mapping under the Bayesian Paradigm during 2011-18 in Guilan, Iran
Background: Congenital Hypothyroidism (CH) is one of the reasons for mental retardation and defective growth in neonates. It can be treated if it is diagnosed early. The congenital hypothyroidism can be diagnosed using newborn screening in the first days after birth. Disease mapping helps to identify high-risk areas of the disease. This study aimed to evaluate the pattern of CH using the Poisso...
متن کامل